A week ago I posted this post, predicting a bull run based on the market’s sideways movement. Here is my followup and short summary of the price changes since then.
At the time Bitcoin was sitting at around $6,380; it preceded to drop $200 the next day and then climb to $7,450 in the following 6 days, increasing in price by about $1,100 (more than double my guess of ~$500ish). However, given the fact that we’ve sort of plateaued I do not see this bull run lasting all that much longer (and then what it will do after that I have no idea).
As always though, remember this isn’t financial advice. I’m just a random guy on the internet speculating.
As I have been known to say, whenever we see a a sudden change in price followed by a short period of time with no change in price there is almost always a sudden Bull or Bear run. As you can see, we appear to be gearing up for that run of some sort.
Given that Bitcoin has hovered slightly over 6k (which appears to be Bitcoin’s glass floor) the last few days I would hypothesize that that sudden change is going to be a Bull run (perhaps a jump of around 500$ in price); of course we also have to keep in mind the chance that Bitcoin has a bear run and ends up at around ~5k, although I think that is unlikely.
As always though, everybody is wrong sometimes and I’m no exception. Watch the market, do your own research, and place your bets carefully. Good Luck!
A note to my regular readers:
Like I said in my last post I’ve been fairly busy lately and writing has taken the back burner. This is the reason that the last two posts of mine have been short and spread out. Hopefully I can resume my normal pace soon.
Just a follow up to my previous post that predicted a rebound after a sudden drop in the market.
Anyway, basically I was wrong; but wrong because of another event. You see on June 18th we started to see a drop in the market and I predicted that once it finished it’s course we would see a quick rebound (and then what happened after that was anybody’s guess).
However, some 36 hours later, right about when the rebound ‘probably’ would have happened, Bithumb got hacked and lost 31 million dollars; and hacks are never good for the market. Bitcoin is still in the red and never made the rebound I predicted, although with the news being 2 days old now I can’t imagine that this will last much longer.
So, long story short: yes I was wrong, but it was unexpected circumstances effecting a market-cycle prediction. Hopefully my accuracy will resume again. Sorry if anybody got burnt, but as I always say, do your own research.
Today the top 39 coins (minus tether and Binance coin) are all in the red, and most of them are in the red by 1-2% or more.
As I have been known to say, every time the entire market goes red it usually rebounds soon after. Very soon I expect expect a sudden pump as the market rebounds, although what action comes after that short rebound is a toss up. Now is one of those times that it is extremely important to keep a close eye on the market, and I would highly recommend doing so if you are not already.
Although, as always, my disclaimer: As much as I believe what I post to be true, everybody is wrong sometimes and I’m no exception; do your own research and place your bets carefully!
A note for my blog readers: I posted the original post on Steemit before I even created my blog. However, since now I’m syndicating my content across both platforms I’m posting this update on both. You can read my original post here.
Three months ago in March I posted a list of 5 cryptos that I expected to tank, or at least lose a lot of value. I know that this may seem a little late for a follow up, but this wasn’t some sort of signal based on breaking news; this was a prediction of the downfall (or beginning of the downfall) of certain coins, which takes time.
DASH (Formerly DarkCoin)
On March 6th (the day I posted the predictions) DASH was at $575. Today it’s sitting at $274.92, about 48% of it’s value when I made the prediction. I would say that was pretty spot on, right? Maybe not quite as much as I expected, but close.
On March 6th ZCash was at $381. However, soon after I predicted it’s fall news broke out about it’s adoption, followed by a pump. However, the hype has subsided and it’s currently sitting at $207.83. Not quite what I expected, but it has decreased in price, so I guess I was not totally wrong.
On March 6th ETC was coming off a very large pump, so it’s fall was pretty easy to predict. It was at $27 on the 6th and it is currently sitting at $15.48. Not quite the drop I expected, but still a pretty big drop.
On March 6th BTG was sitting at $105, and like I expected, has dropped to 35% of it’s original price and is currently sitting at $37.
I do not think that there was a trader in the world who did not see this coming. At March 6th Litcoin Cash was at $1.75 and is currently sitting at $0.05, a whopping 0.03% of it’s value at the time of my post.
While I expected some more dramatic results from a few coins, every single coin I mentioned in that post has lost substantial value.
You see every time a node (a node being a computer running traditional Bitcoin software) makes a Bitcoin transaction it “announces” it to other nodes. While it’s necessary for nodes to do so (how else would the spread they word), it also means that another node could make note of who spread the word of the transaction and then use that information in whatever way they see fit.
This is where Dandelion comes in. To oversimplify everything, it basically shuffles the transactions between nodes, making it very hard to find out what node really submitted that transaction (now does the image make sense? It’s a bunch of transactions being shuffled between nodes). This is by no means anonymity, but it does strengthen your pseudonymity a bit; creating a hurdle for dragnet style surveillance. Best of all, this would not require a hard fork to implement, so implementation is foreseeable.
Although Dandelion would not have a noticeable difference for most users, it would passively provide them a bit more privacy and create a fairly large barrier for somebody to perform mass surveillance.
Therefore I do hope that the development is successful and that we see Dandelion implemented at some point in the future.
Well, I was sort of right. The pump did occur in the coming weeks; however I over estimated it’s strength a bit, with Bitcoin hitting a high of $9932.53. It was pretty close to the minimum I predicted 3 weeks prior, although still not as high as I expected.
Remember Ripple’s pump at the very beginning of 2018? It went from about 20 cents all the way up to $3.65, right before crashing to about 48 cents and then beginning on a slow climb again. Well, I think that it is going to rise quickly and then have another crash.
As you can see to the right, Ripple went crazy high and then dropped like a stone. A classic bubble example, although I think that the next rise and crash is already beginning to start. Here is my cut and dry prediction of what Ripple’s market will do.
What is Ripple?
Ripple is a pretty generic cryptocurrency. It has goals similar to Bitcoin (being a decentralized payment system), but that’s about it. You can read about it at ripple.com if you want to know more about it, of course in the world of crypto investments hype and bubbles always control the market; and I’d bet half the investors in Ripple don’t even know what it is (this is not what I would recommend, but it’s the unfortunate truth).
I predict a simple rise and fall in the coming months. It probably will not exceed $3 very much because that will be a physiological “glass ceiling” since that was the high right before the crash.
Of course I can’t be sure (and this is not financial advice), just speculation of a volatile market.
Go ahead and read it, this article is the basis of mine. Long story short the author claims that Bank of America closed his account, his wife’s account, and the account he was using to hold his daughter’s college funds in because he started a firm that traded cryptocurrencies.
Based the responses of many financial institutions towards Bitcoin in the last year or so you would think that they are afraid of Bitcoin and/or there is a conspiracy against Bitcoin.
But aren’t a bunch of banks researching the blockchain?
You probably keep hearing that “x institution is researching how to use the blockchain”. Keep in mind that “Bitcoin” <> “Blockchain” are not synonymous: Bitcoin is a decentralized P2P currency, where a blockchain is simply a ledger. So a bank could adopt a blockchain style ledger but still remain hostile to Bitcoin.
So, what do I think?
Bitcoin is yet to even develop much of a niche, so I do not see Bitcoin “killing fiat” (or similar chatter you’ll find on Reddit) any time soon (and probably not ever). Because of this I wonder why so many banks have taken a hard line stance as if it were cutting into their business.
Still though, if you read the articles that I have linked to it will really sound like there is a conspiracy against Bitcoin (or cryptocurrencies in general).
However, to be honest, I have absolutely no idea if there is one or not. Reading about events like these is creating the same questions in my mind that they probably created for you, and one could make a logic argument both for and against a conspiracy against Bitcoin.
What I can say though, is that it’s is very important we keep a close eye on events like these. I think that they are a good example of our ever decreasing financial freedom if a large bank can tell use we can or can’t buy something with our own money.